Leeds United look set to miss out on automatic promotion to the Premier League as their 4-0 loss to QPR left them needing a minor miracle this weekend.
The Whites are currently three points behind Ipswich Town in the Championship table, and need them to lose to Huddersfield whilst they need to beat Southampton at Elland Road on Saturday in order to move back into second place.
If that does not happen, Daniel Farke's side will take to the play-offs as the third-placed team, which would currently see them face West Bromwich Albion over two legs to fight it out for a place in the Wembley showpiece.
The Yorkshire-based outfit may look into what went wrong in recent weeks to stop them from securing automatic promotion ahead of Leicester and Ipswich, and they could point to errors at both ends of the pitch.
Patrick Bamford and Georginio Rutter have underperformed their xG (Expected Goals) tally by a combined 11.81 in the Championship so far this term, with 14 goals from 25.81 xG between them.
However, Leeds may also look at their struggles between the sticks and look to find a replacement for Illan Meslier, with work on a possible new number one seemingly already underway.
Leeds United's interest in Championship colossus
Last week, it was reported by AftonBadet, as relayed by Sport Witness, that the Whites are one of the teams interested in a swoop to sign Rotherham United star Viktor Johansson.
The outlet claimed that fellow Championship side Stoke City and Premier League team Sheffield United, who are due to return to the second tier next season, are also eyeing up the impressive shot-stopper ahead of the upcoming summer transfer window.
AftonBadet suggested that the Swedish titan will not be joining the Millers in League One, after their relegation from the Championship was confirmed last month.
The report also stated that Leeds are the frontrunners in the race to land Johansson at the end of the 2023/24 campaign, as they would like to add him to their squad whether they are in the Premier League or the second division.
Journalist Alan Nixon has since added that the former Aston Villa goalkeeper has a release clause in his contract with Rotherham, which will allow clubs to swoop in to sign him for just £1m because of their relegation.
Football Insider reported in September of 2023 that Leeds were prepared to cash in on Meslier but no suitable offers came in, which resulted in him staying at Elland Road.
The 49ers must now complete a bargain deal to sign Johansson for £1m and then work hard to finally ditch the Frenchman, either just from the starting XI or from the squad if they can find a suitor in the summer transfer window.
Illan Meslier's struggles this season
The 24-year-old dud was handed match ratings of 3/10 against both QPR and Middlesbrough in respectively in his last two appearances for the club, in which time his side conceded a staggering seven goals.
Meslier has only conceded 38 goals in 43 league appearances, and kept 18 clean sheets, in the Championship so far this season, which suggests – on paper – that he has had a fantastic season.
However, the underlying data suggests that the club's superb defensive record, of goals conceded and clean sheets kept, has largely been down to outstanding defending, rather than goalkeeping.
Leeds have the lowest xGA (Expected Goals Against) in the entire league, which means that they have allowed the lowest quality of shots in the division throughout the campaign.
Meslier, meanwhile, has conceded 3.88 more goals than expected based on the xG of the shots against him, which places him 41st out of 48 Championship goalkeepers for Goals Prevented (-3.88).
This suggests that he has been below average as a shot-stopper, conceding roughly four more than expected, whilst he is also below average (bottom 32% of positional peers) in the league for percentage of crosses stopped at 5%.
2020/21
46.6
52
-3.4
2021/22
61.8
79
-16.2
2022/23
53.6
67
-12.4
As you can see in the table above, Meslier's shot-stopping was also an issue in the Premier League over the previous three seasons, which shows that the Frenchman could be a liability for Leeds if they win promotion.
Why Leeds should sign Viktor Johansson
The 49ers could finally ditch Meslier, one year on from when they were previously willing to cash in, by signing Johansson to be his replacement for £1m.
Despite being relegated with Rotherham, and playing for the Millers as they just avoided the drop last season, the "outstanding" – per journalist Josh Bunting – titan has proven himself to be a fantastic goalkeeper in the Championship over the last two years.
Last season, the 25-year-old EFL colossus conceded 7.7 fewer goals than the post-shot xG of the efforts on his goal suggested the average goalkeeper would have let in, which shows that he performed miracles at times to keep out high-quality shots.
This season, Johansson has tried his hardest once again to consistently bail his team out of trouble between the sticks, but it was not enough this time to offset the struggles his teammates have had.
Appearances
43
44
Sofascore rating
6.87
7.3
Save success rate
68%
68%
Goals prevented
-3.88
3.19
Ground duel success rate
86%
83%
Aerial duel success rate
93%
100%
As you can see in the table above, the Sweden international has conceded 3.19 fewer goals than expected across 44 appearances in the league.
Therefore, if you switched Meslier and Johansson between their respective teams, in theory, Leeds would have conceded roughly seven goals fewer and Rotherham would have conceded seven goals more.
Over the last 365 days, the Millers star also ranks within the top 20% of goalkeepers in the Men's Next 14 Competitions for percentage of crosses stopped at 8%, which shows that he also dominates his box to take pressure off his defenders more frequently than the Whites dud.
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These statistics suggest that Leeds could land a huge upgrade on Meslier by signing Johansson for £1m, as he is a significantly better shot-stopper who is also more commanding in his area.
Therefore, the 49ers could then brutally ditch the left-footed goalkeeper to make the EFL star Farke's number one option, whether that is in the Premier League or the Championship.